What Happened & What’s Next

As 2024 gives way to 2025, a glimpse at what the new year might have in store

Knowing well how foolish it was, we ended 2023 making predictions for the next year. We did get some things right, believe it or not.

The unemployment rate remained low, though it did tick above 4% for the first time in nearly three years. The list of states with zero-emissions vehicle sales requirements in place is now up to 13, plus Washington, D.C.

Other things we got … not so right. Heat pump sales have declined dramatically, though they’re still outselling gas furnaces.

Workers being back in the office five days a week remains a mixed bag. High-profile companies such as Amazon, UPS, Boeing, Disney, and Salesforce have been trying to get employees back in the office five – or at least four – days a week.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, in announcing a policy that would require most white-collar employees to be in the office all week starting Jan. 2, said “it’s easier to learn, model, practice, and strengthen our culture,” and that “collaborating, brainstorming, and inventing are simpler and more effective,” and “teams tend to be better connected to one another” in person.

Others argue that return-to-office mandates are a good way to lose your best performers. Too many workers have had a taste of the work-life balance and flexibility remote or hybrid work offers, and there are still enough businesses offering it that those with office mandates will see workers flee or fail to recruit top talent, Gene Marks wrote in The Guardian. Marks, a business management expert and owner of the Marks Group PC, which provides technology and financial management services, wrote that employees who resist RTO mandates “are right and their bosses are making a big mistake.”

One of the large employers pushing for workers to return to the office five days a week is the federal government, which as of Jan. 20 will be under new management. And even though Donald Trump was president fairly recently, it’s difficult to make many solid predictions about what this term will mean for business.

Industry Outlooks

Trump has consistently shown a disdain for renewable energy, so this administration could move to get rid of Biden administration EV requirements and do away with incentives. Several big automakers that have invested billions in an EV transition want the requirements to remain in place. A wild card in all this is how much influence Elon Musk has in the new administration. Musk’s EV maker Tesla is one of the world’s most valuable companies in large part because of the carbon credits it sells. Another wild card is the large lithium deposits recently surveyed in Arkansas that could make the U.S. a major EV production hub – if they can be extracted relatively easily. Trump is sure to ramp up U.S. oil production, meaning already record highs of output should only get larger.

With companies of all stripes going all in on AI, tech giants are banking on nuclear power to help them build more data centers without forsaking their net zero goals. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have entered agreements that could lead to the generation of as much as 5,000 megawatts of power through the 2030s. The reactors they’re planning to build are smaller than standard nuclear reactors, and some could go right next to the data centers they’ll power.

“AI is driving a significant increase in the amount of data centers and power that are required on the grid,” Kevin Miller, Amazon Web Services’ vice president of global data centers, told the Associated Press. “We view advanced new nuclear capacity as really key and essential.”

Domestic manufacturing has seen a renaissance, with an emphasis post-Covid on reshoring and nearshoring. Carefully targeted tariffs on certain goods could keep that boom going, but many supply chains are still global and even domestically assembly products use parts from all over. How much tariffs affect prices on the finished products will depend on how big they are and where they’re applied.

The construction industry is still dealing with those supply disruptions and raw materials shortages that came along with Covid but should see steady growth with robust housing demand. For offices that remain empty, some contractors are looking to convert them into housing. The process isn’t always easy, but selecting the right building type helps. For new homes that get built, trends for the new year include integration of multifunctional indoor/outdoor spaces and further incorporation of IoT devices in truly intelligent homes. A continuing labor shortage could prove a limiting factor in how much gets built.

Medical breakthroughs continue to march on, with some truly game-changing treatments and devices brought to market in 2024 and more on the way in the near future. The miracle of mRNA-based vaccines keeps delivering, and soon there might be vaccines for all manner of ailments, from norovirus to cancers. When they’ll be approved and available is an open question.

What will we eat and drink in 2025? Well, the Whole Foods Market Trends Council predicts a lot of international options in the snack aisle, with flavors from all over the globe hitting shelves near you. To wash it down, tea – especially with adaptogens – will rise to rival coffee once more. As for the stronger stuff, spirits will be more sustainable.

“Natural and organic wines may not be new, but brands are taking things a step further by embracing regenerative practices and lower-impact packaging. For example, the Sustainable Wine Roundtable, has a goal to drop bottle weights by 25% by 2026,” Whole Foods says. “Meanwhile, beer and whiskey brands are embracing ingredients like drought-resistant fonio or regeneratively farmed kernza.”

You never know what tomorrow will bring, let alone a whole year, but these are key things to watch. One thing we can definitely count on? Change.