From fake to favorite: food’s big flex

Chew on this: despite the steep decline of the imitation meat industry, consumers have developed a real taste for plant-based alternatives to dairy, eggs, and seafood. As the market for alternative proteins matures, gluten-free, dairy-free, vegan and vegetarian comestibles have won their place in the mainstream and are gaining more prominence in the American diet. Whether it’s soy milk, plant butter, or dairy-free Ben & Jerry’s, these alternatives are staples in 59% of the country’s kitchens.

The plant-based food market is flourishing, propelled by health consciousness, sustainability, price parity efforts, fermentation innovation, and widespread adoption. Ten years ago, finding vegan cheese that would actually melt – let alone taste like cheese instead of Elmer’s glue – was an unpalatable adventure. Now, Nestlé, Danone, Unilever and others are racing to meet the moment, leveraging legacy brand recognition to take advantage of familiarity and gain shoppers’ trust.

In 2024, the U.S. retail plant-based sector alone reached $8.1 billion. Today, market value is $15.9 billion and is expected to bloom to $49.5 billion in 2036 with a CAGR of 12%, made possible by advancements in food science and technology.

The technological superhero of the sector, as you might expect, is AI. Its ability to process multiple datasets, including raw data from physical tests, can speed up the development process in addition to enabling scientists to formulate products that harmonize taste, texture, and nutritional values.

The new food influencers

Flexitarians are the engine behind the hypergrowth of the industry. When it comes to making gustatory choices that taste good and satisfy consumer desires to maintain more healthy and sustainable diets, flexitarianism is the new social default. These casual vegetarians and vegans are open to eating traditional meat, seafood, and cheese when it suits them, abandoning rigid dietary rules in favor of their personal choices. Most flexitarians aim for a “half-and-half” routine, eating plant-based food half of the time and high quality animal proteins half of the time. (Shaming vegans at the barbeque is becoming a thing of the past – we hope.

Gen Z and Millennials make up the core of the movement, with 79% of Gen Z eating meatless meals at least twice a week. A significant boost comes from Boomers looking to manage their health and longevity.

According to the Plant-Based Food Association (PBFA), flexitarianism has evolved into the most influential force in the global food economy,  estimating that 42% of the global population puts the flex in flexitarian. They’ve moved the industry to incorporate plant-forward ingredients such as soy and pea proteins and mycoproteins.

Soy and pea proteins provide micronutrients, protein content, isoflavones, digestibility, and taste. Mycoproteins aren’t plant-based but fermented fungi, mushroom-like substances that are high in fiber, low in saturated fat, and can be used to mimic the texture of meat. They have abundant medicinal and functional properties, such as antioxidants, and are known to reduce blood glucose levels and help prevent cardiovascular diseases.

The foundation of flexitarianism is rooted in the vegan lifestyle, which combines compassionate conservation, the promotion of locally sourced foods, composting, and using natural, cruelty-free products, values that, in variable degrees, are also part of the vegetarian and flexitarian movements.

However, in 2026, flexitarians are leaning hard into personal ecology: the intersection of gut health and environmental impact. Health focused adherents value the functional medicine aspects of plants, such as phytonutrients and fiber, and view the B12, iron, and complete proteins of meat as performance boosters.

In 2025, the PBFA estimated that 96% of flexitarians buy plant-based and animal-based meat. “The demographic is increasingly motivated by environmental sustainability, often choosing “hybrid” products to reduce their carbon footprint without sacrificing the sensory experience of meat,” they reported.

The seafood and cheese segments are expected to grow at the fastest CAGR in the plant-based alternatives market, buoyed by studies suggesting that plant-based seafood provides similar nutritional benefits as fish without causing environmental costs.

Where’s the (fake) beef?

High prices, consumer dissatisfaction with taste and texture, a distrust of engineered ingredients and ultraprocessing, and a rising trend of “clean eating” are causing a perfect storm of plant-based meat rejection. Whether we’re looking for a more ethical way to cure our cravings, doing our best to make better health or sustainability choices, or seeking a less expensive product, if food doesn’t deliver on the hype we won’t go back for a second helping.

The U.S. beef industry is in crisis, and prices have skyrocketed. Years of drought, wildfires, shrinking pastures, the high price of feed, and herd liquidation has culminated in a record-low cattle inventory. In addition, the Big Four meatpackers (Cargill, JBS, Tyson Foods, and National Beef) control 85% of the beef market, causing producers’ profits to fall and consumers’ prices to rise.

Nonetheless, the American appetite for real beef is still high. Given the complications of having the lowest cattle headcount since the 1950s, achieving price parity with traditional beef products is a significant challenge for companies hoping to entice meat lovers to explore alternatives. Lab-grown steer isn’t much of a bargain when the common retail price for 93% lean/7% fat conventional ground beef is ~$10.95 a pound and a pound of the same lean-to-fat ratio imitation ground beef is ~$9.95. Prices of steak, specialty cuts, and organic meats are considerably higher.

The current alternative meat market may not be frozen solid, but it’s beyond chilly. The first pure-play public company in the sector, Beyond Meat, set investors’ hopes and wallets on fire with a market cap of more than $14 billion in 2019, and their stock was a beefy $234.90 per share. Six years later, the company’s peak value is roughly $200 to $350 million, having lost over 97% of its peak value. Today, their stock is priced at $0.6762 per share.

In 2021-2022, Impossible Foods was valued at around $7 billion, and investors were eyeing an IPO valuation of $10 billion. As of late March of this year, secondary share traders Forge Global show a price valuation of $452.8 million and stock price at $1.60 per share. An IPO is currently off the table while the company recalibrates.

At the peak of their popularity, alternatives were created and marketed as replacement products; now scientists and food technologists are rethinking formulas to optimize the sensory experience of eating plant-based meats.

Researchers from Stanford University used a combination of 3D mechanical testing and machine learning to analyze food texture in the quest to accurately replicate the mouthfeel of animal meats. They discovered that today’s plant-based products can reproduce the entire texture spectrum of animal flesh.

“Instead of using a trial-and-error approach to improve the texture of plant-based meat, we could envision using generative artificial intelligence to scientifically generate recipes for plant-based meat products with precisely desired properties,” the researchers wrote.

The team is inviting open innovation, sharing their datasets in a public database to help other scientists and companies collaborate on delicious solutions to a slew of environmental and health concerns.

While it’s a useful marketing hook, some scientists balk at the flexitarian portmanteau, concerned by its subjectivity and absence of a strict definition, factors that make developing evidence-based studies nigh impossible. Point taken, but from our side of the table, if you’re creating foods that will please diverse palates, support customers’ values regarding health, ethics, and sustainability, and reignite investors’ passion for prime cuts of market share, you can call us anything you want – except late for dinner.