Under the Weather

They measure and test and crunch massive volumes of data. They build new field tech and use bleeding edge solutions to create a revolution in weather forecasting. They are the Cloud Warriors.

By Anne-Frances Hutchinson

Accurately predict a hurricane’s path six days before landfall. Watch lightning bursts in broad daylight. Capture a single hailstone on camera as it falls from above. These wonders come to us courtesy of weather forecasters, those relentlessly curious souls peering deeper into weather’s mysteries to save lives, property, and the nation’s economy.

From RADAR, LI-DAR, and weather balloons to artificial intelligence and machine learning, both legacy and novel technology makes it possible to see further into the future and predict weather events with incredible precision. Drones, new satellite technology, and the Internet of Things generate data to keep meteorologists chasing answers to the puzzle we’ve yet to solve: if we can accurately predict extreme weather, why can’t we save people from the peril it brings?

That’s the ultimate question Thomas E. Weber pursues in his new book, Cloud Warriors:  Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos—and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in Weather Forecasting (St. Martin’s Press). His answer appears early in the book:

“In 2023 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tallied a record of 28 separate weather disasters in which costs exceeded $1 billion. … In a war you need intelligence to win; in our battle with the atmosphere, a good forecast provides that intelligence. It turns out that we can do something right now to save lives, reduce inequality, and safeguard the economy: predict the weather better.”

Cloud Warriors follows Weber as he chases storms with experts from NOAA, sees a weather satellite being prepared to go to space, learns about microclimates in agriculture, and gets an inside view of the companies that make and use weather forecasting technology. He’s a veteran writer, editor, and newsroom executive with a lifelong interest in how science and technology shape society.

He was The Wall Street Journal’s first internet columnist and later became a bureau chief for the paper. As executive editor of TIME, he supervised the magazine’s feature journalism. He has taught journalism and publishing at Columbia University and New York University, as well as at his alma mater, Princeton University.

Storm chasers and balloons

Meteorologists use novel technology solutions and tried-and-true, low-tech equipment such as weather balloons to collect data. When storm chasing with researchers from NOAA’s National Severe Storms Lab, Weber discovered that part of the process is stopping along the way, setting up a truck to inflate a weather balloon, and then sending it up in the air.

“It’s a crazy endeavor, wrangling this big balloon when you’re in really windy conditions. Everyday all over the country National Weather Service offices send up the balloons with a little package dangling at the bottom no bigger than a milk carton that sends back information about the atmosphere as it rises.” The resulting core sample of pressure and temperature measured as it rises through the atmosphere, is fed into computer models to give an accurate picture of the atmosphere.

Serious storm chasers gather much more data about the atmosphere. Weber pointed to veteran storm chaser Sean Waugh, who created a camera that can capture hail as its falling through the sky. “Knowing the size and frequency of hail as you’re approaching the center of a storm is valuable data in figuring out how tornadoes are going to form,” he noted.

In Weber’s view, hyperlocal forecasting – granular data gathered and analyzed for a specific area or microclimate – has the potential to drive abundant innovation in meteorology. While accuracy issues remain, more and more businesses are seeking specialized forecasts that enable them to protect people, assets, and profits.

“If you tried to serve every one of those specialized needs inside the weather service you could never do it all,” he said. “You’d be tackling a problem that’s bigger than NOAA and the NWS.” Industrious companies such as AccuWeather serve corporate customers who hire them to provide specific forecasts around facilities, and startups are pursuing customers who require specific forecasts.

“(Hyperlocal forecasting) also affirms the role for businesses to advance forecasting even as the other legs of the weather enterprise tripod—­ government and academia—­ are critical to progress in everything from basic science to public safety,” he wrote.  “As hyperlocal forecasting evolves, the challenges of figuring out how to gather that data, apply it effectively, and ensure its quality will only grow.”

Tackling the People Problem

“Today we can see five times further into the future with the same accuracy as 20 years ago,” Weber said. Because the pinpoint accuracy of weather prediction has dramatically increased, hurricanes can be tracked several days before the storm arrives. Yet, lives are still lost. “That dichotomy demands progress on all fronts: forecasting, warnings, and understanding human behavior and community vulnerabilities. That’s a big ask on top of the science.”

When it comes to communicating with the public about dangerous conditions, meteorologists provide the information to the municipality and a government representative, usually a director of emergency management, who makes the decisions about school closures, cooling centers, evacuations, and other critical matters that will affect the community. It’s not an easy task.

“A lot of forecasters are very aware of the danger of overwarning and being the forecaster who cried wolf. The responsibility for deciding to put out a warning or not is pretty fearsome,” Weber said. There are scores of serious considerations to be balanced at times like these. A forecast predicting foul weather may trigger school closures that could mean sending children home during dangerous weather or depriving kids who depend on school for their meals.

“Having the information doesn’t necessarily mean that it reaches people on time to make avoiding disaster possible, and even if it does there are still populations in which that’s going to be extremely difficult,” he added. Because there are gaps in infrastructure where broadband still can’t reach, some people won’t be aware of the danger they’re in.

Cloud Warriors is a fascinating read, full of adventures and the intricacies of meteorology.  Weber wrote the book to demonstrate the tremendous value of weather research on the economy, public safety, and business, as well as its importance to worldwide aid programs. We’ll let the book wrap up the story:

“Though the need to confront the human element might seem obvious, it’s a relatively recent advance. Only within the past fifteen years has the role of social science gained serious traction as a vital complement to the research and technology needed to understand the atmosphere. Time and again as I learned about the impact of dangerous weather, I saw how important this work was.  Factoring in human behavior is a force multiplier for advances in weather forecasting.”

Critically, it’s also a vital tool for recognizing and addressing social inequities. Income, race, culture, language, age—­ all can play roles in who has a disproportionate vulnerability to different types of weather.

CLOUD WARRIORS

Deadly Storms, Climate Chaos—and the Pioneers Creating a Revolution in Weather Forecasting

By Thomas E. Weber

Published by St. Martin’s Press

Hardcover ISBN: 9781250280541

US $27.00 / CAN $36.00

eBook ISBN: 9781250280558

Visit www.thomaseweber.com for a behind-the-scenes look at the Cloud Warriors and more.